With the potential for a transition to La Nina conditions this fall, a La Nina Watch is in effect. This is increasing the likelihood for warmer than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation during the upcoming fall and winter seasons. Drought is more likely to develop and/or intensify with an increased frequency of days with fire weather concerns. However, it’s important to emphasize that heavy rain events could still occur. Although the upcoming cold season is likely to be warmer than normal overall, this can mask cold outbreaks. In addition, there are many factors other than La Nina that can affect our weather during the cold season; but since many of these features can’t be predicted very well beyond a couple of weeks, they are not considered for seasonal outlooks.