Texas Early Voting–Final Numbers

By Oldhippiedude

With election day almost upon us, we have a little time to take a short break from GOTV efforts and look at how we did in early voting.

Here are the numbers for Texas’ 15 most populous counties:

2008 / 2012  / 2016

Harris (Houston)

678,312 / 700,216 / 882,580

Dallas

477,228 / 415,7435 / 512,168

Tarrant (Ft Worth)

431,799 / 387,350 / 480,936

Bexar (San Antonio)

375,784 / 348,326 / 436,731

Travis (Austin)

282,848 / 222,913 / 357,595

Collin (DFW)

211,637 / 213,447 / 289,561

Denton

166,927 / 163,082 / 228,928

El Paso

110,132 / 93,558 / 142,453

Ft Bend (SW Houston)

148,450 / 153,090 / 201,655

Hidalgo (McAllen)

84,650 / 99,647 / 132,424

Montgomery (N Houston)

96,982 / 114,092 / 145,264

Williamson (Round Rock)

108,077 / 100,472 / 153,286

Galveston

71,600 / 77,762 / 94,088

Nueces (Corpus Christi)

62,715 / 56,595 / 67,099

Cameron (Brownsville)

39,210 / 42,103 / 61,339

Cumulative EV

3,346,351 / 3,188,396 / 4,186,107

Total Votes (ev & mail in)

3,556,156 / 3,407,497 / 4,497,431

Vote % of Registered Voters

42.03% / 39.38% / 46.08%

So, let’s break these numbers down a little bit.

Overall among these counties, early voting is up 31% over 2012. This voting, combined with record registration of 15 million statewide, would appear to be good news for Democrats.

Further good news becomes apparent when we see that among blue counties, the EV total was 2,525,290, while counties red it was 1,459,162. (I’m counting Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties as blue, with Ft. Bend a tossup).

The good news is, however, tempered by the turnout percentages, which are 40% in the blue counties and 47% in the red counties. Turnout has been especially weak in heavily Latino El Paso and Cameron counties at 35% and 32% respectively. But it should be noted that Latinos tend to prefer voting on Election Day and that the turnout in more Anglo blue counties includes Harris at 44%, Dallas at 43%, and Travis at 52%.

As far as the percentage increase in EV over 2012, the largest are in Travis (60%), Williamson (53%), and El Paso (52%). The increase in turnout was just about even in blue and red counties (31% and 32% respectively).

So what does all this mean? Well, it appears that, at least in the population centers, there is no lack of enthusiasm among GOP voters. But it looks like Dem voters are just as enthusiastic. And it also sounds like we’re going to have to work at last-minute GOTV efforts among Latinos, which is what I’ll be doing after I finish this up. And of course GOTV among all our voters, particularly in US House District 23, where we have an excellent chance of picking up a seat, and District 1, where our chances are much smaller but better than zero.

So, in summary, EV turnout in Texas has been excellent, up substantially from 2012. While high turnout usually favors Democrats, there has been a great turnout in traditional GOP counties, and the Latino turnout has been disappointing so far. With about 54% of registered voters having not been to the polls yet, GOTV is, as always, critical.

In less than 48 hours we’ll know how this all plays out. In the meantime, if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got some phone calls to make…