TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Thunderstorm chances will return this evening as a warm front moves into North Texas. The greatest chances will be after midnight along and north of the boundary…which at that time will be near or to the north of the I-20 corridor. As rich gulf moisture rises above the cooler air north of the boundary…it will encounter steadily increasing instability. The elevated thunderstorms that result will also benefit from wind shear sufficient to both prolong the lifespan of individual updrafts and enhance the likelihood of hail larger than one inch in diameter.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Thunderstorms may be ongoing at daybreak Friday morning… Particularly in areas north of the I-20 corridor. Hail will be the primary concern with these storms…but heavy rain and associated flooding issues may also impact the morning commute. These storms are expected to come to an end before midday.
A dryline will invade from the west Friday afternoon…as an upper level disturbance moves overhead…helping to an initiate another round of thunderstorms. At peak heating…there will be considerable instability with little cap in place. Wind shear profiles will be supportive of supercells…capable of large hail…damaging winds…and tornadoes. The severe weather threat will continue Friday night into Saturday morning…with thunderstorm chances gradually ending from west to east late Saturday.
The next storm system will approach early next week. Thunderstorm chances will return as early as Sunday night and continue on Monday…before coming to an end on Tuesday.
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT… SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED…PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I20 CORRIDOR.