The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an updated outlook on this winter’s temperature and precipitation likelihood on November 16. It is the last update before meteorological winter begins on December 1.
Meteorologists with the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a division of NOAA, predict that temperatures will remain near average from December 2023 to February 2024 in North Texas and especially in the Texas Panhandle. This forecast aligns with a re-emergence of El Niño conditions for the first time in four years.
A wetter season is also possible with a subtropical jet that could form over the southern United States, increasing the possibilities of precipitation-producing systems moving into Texoma. The southeast United States has a high likelihood of above-average precipitation this winter.
The forecast needs a fuse of colder air and more moisture for systems that can produce frozen precipitation. With near-average temperatures and above-average rainfall possible this winter, the realm of possibility for wintry designs could increase. Stay weather-aware as colder weather starts to settle in!